Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) shares were sliding Thursday morning after the ski-resort operator delivered some decidedly cold news: early-season metrics are worse than expected, and the company is now warning that full-year earnings will miss prior guidance. The culprit? An almost comically bad stretch of weather that's left skiers staring at brown mountainsides instead of fresh powder.

When the Snow Just Doesn't Show Up

Here's the problem in numbers: season-to-date skier visits through January 4 collapsed 20.0% compared to the same period last year. That's the kind of decline that makes CFOs nervous. Total lift revenue dropped 1.8%, ski school revenue fell 14.9%, dining revenue slid 15.9%, and retail and rental revenue at resort stores decreased 6.0%. These figures include the allocated portion of season-pass revenue, which somewhat cushions the blow.

Chief Executive Rob Katz didn't mince words about what happened. The company "experienced one of the worst early season snowfalls in the western U.S. in over 30 years," he said. Snowfall at western U.S. resorts during November and December came in about "50% below the historical 30-year average." The Rockies got hit even harder, with snowfall down nearly 60%, leaving a measly 11% of terrain open in December. If you're operating a ski resort and only 11% of your mountain is skiable in December, you've got a serious problem.

Profit Warnings and Weather Bets

Given these challenging conditions, Vail now expects full-year Resort Reported EBITDA to land "just below the low end of the guidance range" that it issued back on September 29, 2025. And there's more bad news potentially on the horizon: the company cautioned that if the Rockies don't see better-than-expected improvement, there could be "further downside" to that already reduced outlook.

The current guidance assumes normal weather patterns for the remainder of the 2025/26 North American ski season and typical passholder usage patterns. Back in December, Vail had said fiscal 2026 reported EBITDA should range from $842 million to $898 million. Now they're warning investors to brace for numbers just below that low end.

Katz praised his team's "resilience and exceptional execution" during tough conditions, but the market isn't exactly focused on operational excellence right now. Investors are more concerned with the weather-driven revenue shortfall and diminished profit outlook.

What the Charts Are Saying

The technical picture isn't particularly encouraging. The stock is currently trading 2.6% below its 20-day simple moving average and 7.0% below its 100-day SMA, suggesting bearish momentum in both the short and medium term. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased 22.80% and are positioned much closer to their 52-week lows than highs, reflecting the ongoing challenges.

The RSI sits at 52.03, which lands squarely in neutral territory—the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD is above its signal line, indicating some bullish momentum that could provide support. It's a mixed technical picture: neutral RSI combined with bullish MACD suggests traders should watch closely for potential directional shifts.

• Key Resistance: $163.50
• Key Support: $129.50

What Wall Street Thinks

Investors are looking ahead to the next earnings report scheduled for March 9. Here's what analysts are expecting:

• EPS Estimate: $6.53 (Down from $6.56 YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $1.14 billion (Down from $1.14 billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 20.5x (Indicates fair valuation)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold rating with an average price target of $178.54. Recent analyst moves include:

• Jefferies: Upgraded to Buy (Raised Target to $165.00) (Jan. 13)
• Truist Securities: Buy (Lowered Target to $234.00) (Dec. 29, 2025)
• Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Lowered Target to $151.00) (Dec. 23, 2025)

Valuation Insight: While the stock trades at a fair P/E multiple, the consensus and 0% expected earnings decline suggest analysts view this growth as justification for the 30% upside to analyst targets.

Quality Metrics Tell a Mixed Story

Looking at various quality and momentum metrics for Vail Resorts, the picture is decidedly mixed compared to the broader market:

• Momentum: Weak (Score: 10.76/100) — Stock is significantly underperforming the broader market.
• Quality: Neutral (Score: 49.51/100) — Balance sheet remains stable despite challenges.
• Value: Risk (Score: 34.19/100) — Trading at a premium relative to peers.

The Verdict: These metrics reveal a challenging landscape for the stock. While the Quality score indicates the company maintains financial stability, the extremely low Momentum score suggests investors should exercise caution as the stock struggles to find upward traction. The Value score indicates the stock isn't exactly cheap relative to comparable companies.

ETF Implications

One interesting angle: MTN carries significant weight in certain funds, most notably:

• Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF (LBAY): 5.77% Weight

Significance: Because MTN represents a meaningful portion of these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock, potentially amplifying price movements.

Price Action

MTN Price Action: Vail Resorts shares were down 0.64% at $141.71 at the time of publication on Thursday.