Remember when the only stocks anyone wanted to talk about were the Magnificent Seven? That was so last year. Right now, it's the little guys stealing the show.
The Russell 2000 has roared into 2026 with the kind of momentum that makes you check your screen twice. As of Jan. 15, the small-cap benchmark—tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)—has posted intraday record highs in each of the past 10 sessions. That's impressive enough on its own, but here's the kicker: during that same stretch, small caps beat large caps every single day, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
Want to know the last time we saw a streak like this? June 2008. Yes, that June 2008.
The numbers tell the story clearly. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is up more than 7%, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500's modest 1.5% gain. And the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS)? It's gone absolutely nowhere—flat on the year.
What's Driving the Small-Cap Revival?
The main catalyst has been an improving macroeconomic backdrop. Stronger-than-expected economic data is reshaping the earnings outlook for smaller companies in a way that's hard to ignore.
Consider this: the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now estimates the U.S. economy grew at a 5.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That's a pace we haven't seen outside the post-pandemic period since mid-2014. Sure, a shrinking trade deficit is helping boost the headline number, but the underlying strength points to resilient consumer spending and robust business investment.
To put that 5.3% figure in perspective, growth at this level has been rare. You'd have to go back to the second quarter of 2014 to find similar momentum, and before that, early 2006.
"Small cap revision have improved significantly ahead of the earnings season, stronger than normal," said 22V Research analyst Dennis DeBusschere in a recent note.
"That supports small-cap performance to start the year. Large- and mid-cap revisions remain negative, roughly following historical patterns," he added.
A Rare Signal From Earnings Revisions
According to 22V Research, the percentage of small-cap companies raising guidance ahead of fourth-quarter earnings has surged, overtaking both mid-cap and large-cap companies. It's the first time this has happened since January 2025.
This setup doesn't come around often, and when it does, it tends to be powerful. Similar patterns appeared during select periods in 2019, 2021, and early 2025—all of which preceded sustained stretches of small-cap outperformance.
"Small caps are discounting better fundamentals," DeBusschere said, adding that the setup supports continued outperformance in the near term.




