Space stocks are having a moment, and AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) is leading the charge. The company's shares hit a fresh all-time high Thursday, capping off what's been an absolutely wild ride for investors willing to bet on the future of satellite communications.

We're talking about a 370% gain over the past year. That's the kind of return that makes you wonder if you should have paid more attention when someone mentioned "space-based cellular broadband" at a dinner party last year.

The Satellite That's Bigger Than Your Apartment

Here's what's driving the excitement: In late December, AST SpaceMobile successfully launched its BlueBird 6 spacecraft into orbit. This isn't just another satellite. It's sporting a nearly 2,400-square-foot communications array, making it the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit.

To put that in perspective, that's bigger than most two-bedroom apartments. And it's floating in space, beaming data at speeds up to 120 Mbps directly to standard smartphones. No special equipment needed. No weird antenna attachment. Just your regular phone, potentially getting service in places that have never seen a cell tower.

The company says BlueBird 6 marks the beginning of scaled deployment. They're not stopping at one oversized space antenna. Management has laid out plans to have between 45 and 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026. That's an aggressive timeline, and investors seem to think they can pull it off.

Building Satellites in Texas

AST isn't outsourcing this operation. The spacecraft was built and tested in Midland, Texas, where the company now operates nearly 500,000 square feet of manufacturing and operations space. That's a serious footprint for a company that's still in the deployment phase.

They've also secured partnerships with more than 50 mobile network operators worldwide. We're talking big names here: AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and others. These aren't speculative partnerships. These are established carriers betting that space-based connectivity will fill gaps in their existing networks and reach customers they couldn't serve before.

The timing couldn't be better from a policy standpoint. A recent U.S. executive order explicitly prioritized commercial solutions and private investment across the space economy, with particular emphasis on satellite-enabled communications. When the government starts actively encouraging your business model, that tends to get investors excited.

The Business Model, Simplified

What AST SpaceMobile does is actually pretty straightforward, even if the execution is rocket science. They're building a space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to everyday 4G and 5G smartphones without any hardware modifications.

The satellites use powerful phased-array technology in low Earth orbit. By partnering with existing carriers, AST aims to extend coverage to remote and underserved regions while adding resilience to networks that already exist. Think of it as filling in the coverage map where ground-based towers just aren't economically viable.

The Charts Tell a Story

The technical picture is interesting here. The stock is trading 23% above its 20-day simple moving average and a whopping 52.7% above its 100-day moving average. That demonstrates serious momentum on both short-term and longer-term timeframes.

The RSI sits at 59.70, which is neutral territory. Not overbought, not oversold. Meanwhile, MACD is above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum. It's a mixed signal situation: the momentum is clearly there, but the stock hasn't run into obvious technical resistance yet. Key resistance sits at $103.

Earnings Ahead, Analysts Cautious

Investors are now looking ahead to the earnings report scheduled for March 2. The numbers tell the story of a company transitioning from pure development to early-stage commercialization.

Analysts expect a loss of 19 cents per share, slightly worse than the 18-cent loss from a year ago. But here's the interesting part: revenue is projected to jump to $39.03 million from just $1.92 million year-over-year. That's a massive increase, and it suggests the company is beginning to generate meaningful commercial activity.

Analyst sentiment remains cautious despite the stock's momentum. The consensus rating is Hold, with an average price target of $61.08. That target sits well below where the stock closed Thursday at $101.25, which tells you analysts think the enthusiasm has run a bit ahead of fundamentals.

Recent analyst actions show some warming sentiment, though. B. Riley Securities upgraded the stock to Neutral and raised their price target to $105 on January 13. Scotiabank moved from Sector Underperform to Sector Perform back in November, maintaining a $45.60 target that now looks almost quaint.

Momentum Meets Valuation Concerns

The company scores an impressive 98.67 out of 100 on momentum metrics, confirming what the chart already shows: this stock is outperforming the broader market by a wide margin. But high momentum doesn't always translate to sustainable gains, especially when valuation multiples get stretched.

This is what analysts call a "High-Flyer" setup. The momentum is undeniable, but the valuation requires you to believe in a very specific future where AST SpaceMobile captures significant market share in a nascent industry. That future might arrive, but it's not guaranteed.

ETF Implications

ASTS has become significant enough to move the needle in several ETFs. The First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL) holds AST SpaceMobile at a 4.27% weight. That's substantial. The First Trust Mid Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund (FNX) holds it at 0.53%, while the First Trust Mid Cap Growth AlphaDEX Fund (FNY) has a 1.07% allocation.

Why does this matter? Because these are passive allocations based on index rules. Any significant inflows or outflows to these ETFs will force automatic buying or selling of ASTS shares, adding another layer of technical momentum that has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals.

Thursday's Action

AST SpaceMobile shares closed Thursday up 6.33% at $101.25. For a stock that's already up 370% over the past year, a 6% single-day gain shows the momentum hasn't exhausted itself yet. Whether that momentum can bridge the gap between current prices and long-term value is the question every investor needs to answer for themselves.